Ian,
the deadliest hurricane to strike the state of Florida since the 1935 Labor Day hurricane.
the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Florida since Michael in 2018.
billion USD in damage
112
161
Fatalities
What happed?
At 8:00 AM on September 25, 2022, the official National Hurricane Center forecast cone placed Hurricane Ian’s projected landfall between Apalachicola and Tampa — with a centerline near Tallahassee.
September 2022
Hurricane Ian
sept 23, 2022
35
mph
maximum sustained wind
5 days before
Rapid Intensification
From September 23 - 27, the storm rapidly intensified and shifted southward. On September 28, it made landfall near Cayo Costa, just west of Fort Myers.
September 2022
Hurricane Ian
The forecast three days ago missed landfall by over 250 kilometers. For many residents, it meant too little warning, too late to act.
Actual Track vs. forecast
250+ KM
Missed by Miles.
Felt by Millions.
What went wrong?
Forecast Track Errors
Cross-track errors were the largest source of forecast inaccuracies for Hurricane Ian. While the forecast cone of uncertainty did encompass the eventual landfall area, the left-of-track bias complicated precise forecasting.
Coastal-Paralleling Storms
Even minor changes in the coastal-paralleling storm's heading can lead to substantial differences in landfall locations, complicating evacuation and preparedness efforts.
Intensity Forecast Errors
The NHC's official intensity forecasts for Ian were greater than the mean errors from the previous five years, largely due to Ian's rapid intensification, which made it more difficult than usual to predict the storm's strength accurately.
Get forecast right.
Atmospheric data is the biggest missing piece to improving forecasts. Windborne fuse data from long-duration balloons, delivering record-breaking weather forecasts and insights at lightning speed.
It’s survival.
A 250-kilometer error isn’t just a missed forecast. It’s the difference between safety and disaster, preparedness and chaos.
Better atmospheric data isn’t optional.
65
source
main site
contact
